Might religion go extinct?

A surprising new paper was presented at the recent meeting of the American Physical Society.  I know a lot of engineers and physicists, but none of them are studying the decline of religious affiliation in 85 regions around the world.  However Daniel Abrams, Haley Yaple and Richard Wiener have been using techniques from the field of statistical mechanics to do just that.

They start with the observation that people claiming no religious affiliation constitute the fastest growing religious minority in many countries throughout the world. Americans without religious affiliation comprise the only religious group growing in all 50 states.  They claim their model predicts that for societies in which the perceived utility of not adhering is greater than the utility of adhering, religion will be driven toward extinction.

It is not hard to believe that this could apply to some of the better-known secular countries such as The Netherlands, but it seems more surprising that the trend in Ireland indicates that it is going the same way.

Meanwhile, during a lunchtime discussion with two Portuguese colleagues recently, they assured me that Portugal is a Catholic country, but that it hardly mattered as they largely ignored the teachings of the church.  I had to disagree about whether it mattered, but that news is not altogether discouraging.


Here is a link to their paper.  Sadly it fails to pass the 'two equation test' and reminds me that I earned my physics degree in spite of my lack of expertise in statistical mechanics!

Another £25 billion lost to us?

"Some £25bn every year is thought to be lost to the public purse by wealthy tax avoiders. This money needs to be recouped to help save our essential public services."

This is the claim of the 'demonised' UK Uncut organisation which occupied Fortnum and Mason last Saturday, 26th March.

Whether this figure is exactly correct or not, it is perfectly clear that the wealthiest people pay the least tax in UK.  If they accidentally paid as much tax as I do (in £, not in %) I suspect they would probably sack their accountants.

(Am I ranting too much on a single topic this week?  Leave a comment if you think I should return to my usual rants - or indeed if you think this stuff matters a lot.)

Obscene wealth

This picture from the march in London says it all.

Of course out millionaire ministers wouldn't want to do anything to make this fairer.

Tax is for the little people

Its only fair to ask that the wealthiest people in UK pay their share of taxes.  Isn't it?  Nobody is asking for anything punitive - or at least not more punitive than the rest of us have to put up with. But how can Phillip Green be allowed to get away totally tax free with a UK income like his?  It is just not fair!

This picture is from the 26th March protest in London.  Does it remind you about the quotation from Cardinal Ratzinger that I posted a few days ago?

We seem to be left with a few options:

• Do nothing at all and ask people why they think it is worth doing anything. i.e. Just give in!
• Do something - like attending the protest as a lot of us did - i.e. Exercise our democratic right to protest!
• Sympathise with those who are indulging in a campaign against the likes of Vodafone and Top Shop.  i.e. Conspire to commit a crime if only a thought-crime.
• Take action with them because the first two items on this list clearly make too little difference.  i.e. Criminal activity albeit maybe for a just cause.

Now I personally feel my opinion to be right in the middle of this list, somewhere in between attending protests and supporting direct action.  I don't like the idea of criminal damage being caused but I do recognise that even 4 to 500,000 people parading through London can simply be ignored by our barely-elected government.  (It is still claimed by BBC to be only 'quarter of a million'.  I'm pretty sure that is an under-estimate.)

There was something just slightly satisfying, even to law-abiding professional me to see this mess on the windows of De Beers in Picadilly.  I have no idea of their tax status (although I think I could guess) but they are clearly associated with a certain part of our society.  I would like them to be made to feel the outrage that I am feeling now.

"23 of our ministers are millionaires" I read yesterday.  Snouts in the trough eh?  If we 'little people' don't start to make our voices heard more clearly they will continue to get off scot-free.

On the performance of the BBC

With regard to the march in central London today:

• It is my impression that the BBC downplays any criticism of the government
• I feel that they dwell on the sensational stuff in Trafalgar Square last night
• 399,700 people are back at home peacefully - vs 300 left in Trafalgar Square

Who gets on the late-night news?  Answer - the 300.

Let's hope for cutbacks that eliminate the BBC!  Spokesperson for the UK government or what??

March for the alternative

March 26th - the march for the alternative to the government cuts in London.  Estimates of the number of people attending vary but my colleagues and I side with the Guardian's estimate of 400,000, (based on various evidence from the number of coaches and trains to the sheer time it took to move along the march).  I can tell you one thing for certain.  The centre of London had traffic problems!

OK - say 100 people got excited and attacked some shops - shops that arguably deserved it as their owners pay effectively NO tax in UK.  But that leaves 399,900 people - all the people I actually saw in 6 hours included - who were there because they care what happens to the UK.  The atmosphere was uplifting.  There really is hope for humanity.

Just imagine - the cost of bailing out the banks recently is actually greater than the total amount that the government has spent on science since WW2!!  And we continue to pay bonuses to the bankers because they are ??good?? at it?

How do I choose just one photo from today?  The answer is that I just can't choose one.  The two that I have chosen show the good natured humour of an excellent day in London.

Now - regular readers will understand that I do not normally worship the police.  But today I can't offer enough praise for the soft touch that I observed.  The officers I spoke to were polite and sympathetic, guiding the protesters along the correct route but allowing tourists to go about their visit to London.  Well done to 'the Met'*!

* For readers outside UK - 'the Met' means "The Metropolitan Police", in London.

Christian terrorists all around us?

One aspect of terrorism has been defined as "use of threats of violence for the purpose of creating fear in order to achieve a religious goal".

This sounds like Christianity - "Believe this or burn for eternity!"

On this opinion I do agree with the great Hitch!

Was hell 'invented' by gentle Jesus?

What are the origins of the concept of hell? Christopher Hitchens claims that in the Old Testament there is effectively no concept of hell in the modern sense. The idea of eternal suffering was only brought to us by 'gentle Jesus meek and mild'.

Of course Islam also has a concept similar to that of the christian hell, and it is called Jahannam. The origin of this word is thought to be from the same root as the Hebrew name Gehenna which was originally the name of a valley near Jerusalem. It was a place more like the Catholic concept of 'purgatory', and in Jewish tradition nobody would stay in Gehenna for a period longer than twelve months.

Gehenna is often translated into English as hell. However the King James version of the bible also translates the words 'sheol' and 'hades' as hell.

The Jewish meme of 'sheol' is sometimes translated to Greek as 'hades'. All the dead go there, regardless of their moral choices in life. Sheol predates all christian and muslim ideas of judgement and it is considered to be totally different from heaven and hell.

Even within one faith there are disagreements. For example, in Acts 23, verses 6-8 the Pharisees and Sadducees were unable to agree whether angels and spirits even exist, let alone where the spirits go after death.

Confusion reigns. If theologians cannot agree about the subject then surely it is futile to worry about it. Even within the three great mono-theistic religions followers are required to take different actions to avoid eternal damnation, so on the basis of this it is clear that the majority of people will be wrong and suffer the consequences.

Much as I hate to disagree with the great Hitch, I think his explanation might be a little simplistic.  But its a good story and vaguely true.

Simple christianity

“The Christian believer is a simple person: Bishops should protect the faith of their little people against the power of intellectuals”  -  Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger (now the pope of course).

If this offensive quotation had come from one of the new atheists I suspect that few christians would have been surprised. 

Perhaps we should give him the benefit of the doubt.  Maybe his meaning was lost in translation?  (Well OK, maybe not.)  Ratzinger wouldn't want to confuse his 'little people' with actual facts would he?

The Peace of Cod

An American christian friend has just bravely launched a new blog and I was reading the first few entries.  I was so glad to read the moving story of her daughter's first conversation and feel very happy for her.

However, her post "At his feet" described the peace of submitting yourself entirely to Jesus, and was less moving to me.  Gospel music like the linked song always did make me feel uncomfortable too - part of my de-conversion I think.

As I think she was effectively inviting me to comment, I posted a description of finding peace by escaping from the absolute tyranny of the 'less cuddly' aspects of a god like hers.  Hopefully it was polite - just as her comments here have always been courteous.  I feel I can be slightly more direct here on my own blog and can drop the capital letters for deities and religions.

I was reminded of that lovely prayer that begins "The Peace of God that passeth all understanding . . .".  I always liked it - but now I wonder whether that is partly because it indicated that the end of the service was imminent.  Those words describe my thoughts more vividly now than they ever did when I was a christian. (small c!)

Now on the other hand, the 'piece of cod' that I had for dinner this evening with chips and tartar sauce was quite delicious.

Small link: On a slightly less controversial note - see Authentic Fish and Chips - an English delicacy!

Vexed by demons

According to Carl Sagan, in his great book "The Demon Haunted World", 1996 (p116), St Augustine was 'much vexed with demons', which prey on the 'captive and outwitted minds of men'.  These demons have a striking similarity to the activities of the aliens who seem to abduct so many Americans in these times.

Augustine believed that witches were the offspring of the forbidden unions between demons and women.  Demonic seducers of women were known as incubi, and of men succubi.

"There are cases in which nuns reported, in some befuddlement, a striking resemblance between the incubus and the priest confessor, or the bishop, and awoke the next morning to find themselves polluted just as if they had commingled with a man".

There is nothing new in the World!  Ask Pope Benedict about it.  No seriously, ask him!

Facebook's 'A' week event

Atheists in Facebook have been invited to change their profile picture for this weekend join an event that you can find by clicking on this link.

Strangely enough I found that a lot of my contacts there have changed theirs.  Wonder why.  The idea of 'A' Week seems to be going down well with over 17,000 people liking it so far.

The Forer Effect

The Forer Effect, (or as it is sometimes known, the Barnum Effect) gives a little insight into one of the tools used by psychics in 'cold reading' where they can convince their 'victims' that they know more than they really do, and use that knowledge to gain even more knowledge from the victim's reaction. See how appropriate this seems as a description of yourself.

"You have a great need for other people to like and admire you. You have a tendency to be critical of yourself. You have a great deal of unused capacity which you have not turned to your advantage. While you have some personality weaknesses, you are generally able to compensate for them. Disciplined and self-controlled outside, you tend to be worrisome and insecure inside. At times you have serious doubts as to whether you have made the right decision or done the right thing. You prefer a certain amount of change and variety and become dissatisfied when hemmed in by restrictions and limitations. You pride yourself as an independent thinker and do not accept others' statements without satisfactory proof. You have found it unwise to be too frank in revealing yourself to others. At times you are extroverted, affable, sociable, while at other times you are introverted, wary, reserved. Some of your aspirations tend to be pretty unrealistic. Security is one of your major goals in life."

Forer's example seems to apply to most of us, and in his experiment people were asked to rate how accurately they felt it described them. The average score was more than 4 out of 5. The Forer effect is the observation that individuals will give high accuracy ratings to descriptions of their personality that supposedly are tailored specifically for them, but are in fact vague and general enough to almost anyone.

Probability taken personally

A rationalist view is that 'luck is just probability taken personally'.

Sadly I can't attribute this as the author has remained somewhat elusive.

A couple of quotations

There have been no anti-religious posts here recently, so these go a little way to make up for that.

"The lion may lay down with the lamb, but the lamb won't get much sleep" - Woody Allan

"Just because you're offended doesn't mean you are right." - Ricky Gervais

Not ghostly spirits - just proof!

Until 1 January 1980, the United Kingdom defined alcohol content in terms of “proof spirit”, which was defined as the most dilute spirit that would sustain combustion of gunpowder.  It was found that gunpowder would not burn in rum that contained less than 57.15% abv.

Therefore, rum that contained this percentage of alcohol was defined to have "100 degrees proof".  Spirits with a lower alcohol content were described in terms of percentage proof or degrees proof.

More than 30 years later (in these days of standardised alcohol percentages) you still hear people talking about  spirits in terms of the proof spirit definition.  How many of them know what it means?

Gallows humour

When William Palmer, English 19th century doctor and convicted poisoner, stood on the trap door of the gallows in 1886, his last words were "Are you sure this is safe?"

Why are wrist watches so accurate?

Wrist watches only contain standard quartz crystals but many people observe that they seem much more accurate than clocks in other environments (like the car).  The answer is probably temperature control.  It is close to your skin which has a very constant temperature compared with other places.

Fire Walking

Fire walking is a remarkable spectacle and looks very dangerous. So how does it work when it is obviously not a case of mind over matter or anything paranormal?

The key lies in the very poor thermal conductivity of the charcoal.  As long as you only touch the charcoal, however hot it is, the surface cools so quickly that it does not burn you, and the heat is not conducted from inside the charcoal to the surface quickly enough to be a problem.

By analogy it is like a cake in a tin in the oven.  You can touch the cake with your fingers to see whether it is cooked, but even touching the tin for the briefest possible moment you will be burnt.  Haven't we all done that?

Mind you - even understanding all that I'm not sure I want to try fire walking.

The UK census 2011

The time for the national census is nearly upon us, and nobody living in the UK can be unaware of the furore about a few of the questions.  A sentence containing 'storm' and 'teacup' comes to mind. 

Do I care whether the Welsh are being asked whether they speak Welsh or not.  Not a jot!  (Nor even a tittle.)  I smile as I wonder how many people in England actually speak English though.

The religion question is a little more interesting, but still hardly earth-shattering.  An article in The Guardian's series called 'Face to Faith' nicely summarises this week's 'fuss' about some posters being banned from railway stations .  You can find all three posters here.

I loved one of the comments on the Guardian page above.  Asterixorb said:

"I find signs outside churches that say things like 'Jesus saves' 

nonsensical and offensive.  Who do I report it to?".