Why has there been so much negative news about fusion energy this month? I suppose it is because the EU has finally committed itself to spending some extra funds on the
ITER project, and a few people still try to pretend that 1.3 billion Euros is a lot of money.
Is it? What can you buy for a few billion?
How much did CERN's LHC project cost? I have heard figures up to 10 billion Euros spent over about 10 years, with most, if not all the funds coming from European countries. (The LHC itself admits to a figure nearer 3 billion, but I'm sure it depends what you count as LHC and what infrastructure was already there.) Its a
beautiful project and it is sure to produce some beautiful science. But it is also certainly not going to be part of the solution to the world's energy crisis.
The London Olympics comes with a similar price tag, but this time it is being funded almost entirely by a single country. For a few weeks of sporting 'fun', (or to me, a few weeks of sheer tedium), the UK tax payers are paying out £10 billion after private investment failed to materialise. Is that value for money? No doubt many will claim that it is, and I have to
try to respect their opinions. However, it will also not be part of any solution to the world's energy crisis.
The International Space Station is another $10 billion scale project. And many people point out what a sheer waste of money that has been! It has a certain fascination for the inner child, but none of the excitement of earlier manned missions and certainly less value for money than the unmanned space programme.
These three examples - and believe me, there are countless others - show that it is actually a paltry investment when you consider how the ITER project is being funded. Half the world's population are paying towards it, and the total cost is a mere £1 billion dollars per year. (I am deliberately changing units of currency as I regard them as broadly equivalent, within the measurement errors that we are dealing with.)
Is it part of the solution to the energy crisis though?
The answer to that is clearly not known with
absolute certainty, but I can tell you that it has a much better chance of returning value for money in this endeavour than big science, big space missions or big sport. I don't consider ITER to be
big science in the same sense as CERN. It is more of a technological challenge where we know what we want the machine to do and just need to find the best way to make the most efficient and reliable machine. The science that we get from ITER is interesting and relevant, but its main value (to me) is that fusion might finally come to the rescue as the fossil fuels dry up.
I'm not saying 'don't invest in renewables' at the same time. I'm not even advocating an end to spending on other things. I'm just saying that the coming energy crisis will affect us all and if you open your eyes to the possible consequences of shortage of energy you will realise that the world as a whole cannot afford
not to invest in every possible solution however weird and wacky. And as weird and wacky goes, ITER is very much towards the
sane end of the spectrum. Fusion already works on a smaller scale and all the indications are that bigger is better, and that ITER is at least nearly big enough.
Given the context of the level of spending on other things around the world the 'gamble' of building ITER is certainly worth it and at least construction is progressing now. Buildings are starting to appear on the site and large contracts have been placed with industry.
ITER construction site. More photos from here
Fusion
might be thirty years away, and it
might always have been 30 years away, but since the last credible device built to take the technology forwards is now over 30 years old I wonder why anyone would expect that to have changed. Can you think of any other area of technology where a 30 year old device is still 'state of the art'?
Let's just keep in mind that '
the huge price tag' is not huge in the context of the things happening in the 'real world'.
As in everything - context is king!
Small note: This is the private opinion of an almost irrepressible enthusiast - not representing the views of any official organisation in the fusion community. Far from it in fact!